Incumbent John D. Dingell and challenger Henry A. Waxman both are confident they have enough support to bring their contest for chairmanship of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee to the full Democratic Caucus on Thursday.

The House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee meets Wednesday to recommend committee chairmen for the 111th Congress. Under complex rules, if Dingell and Waxman secure 14 votes each from the 50-member panel, the decision is thrown open to the full caucus.

"I expect both of them to have in excess of 14 votes," said G.K. Butterfield, D-N.C. "It will very likely move to a nomination by the full caucus."

Dingell and Waxman are both powerful members of their party, representing different factions.

Dingell of Michigan is the House's longest-serving current member, a skilled legislator renowned for protecting the interests of his state's auto industry. He is expected to draw strong backing from moderate Democrats, including many of the fiscally conservative "Blue Dogs," as well as support from the Congressional Black Caucus.

The Californian Waxman has long clashed with Dingell by pushing for stronger environmental laws. He is expected to draw support from fellow liberals. Waxman, chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, is aligned with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a fellow Californian who has remained publicly neutral. Still, many Democrats doubt Waxman would have attempted the challenge without the Speaker's tacit support.

Challenge to the Seniority System
Many House Democrats say they admire both men but worry that rejecting Dingell would upset the seniority system and create a rift in the caucus at a moment when the party has won the White House and cemented its hold on Congress.

"I have talked with John and Henry," said Illinois Democrat Daniel Lipinski, who added that he was still undecided. "I have talked to their supporters. I know both have done well as chairmen. I know Waxman eventually will become chairman. It is just a question of when."

Lipinski said that the seniority system remains important and that he will weigh what is best for the caucus in the short run against what is best in the long run.

"If you alter the importance of the system, you create internal caucus problems," he added.

Jay Inslee of Washington, who has one of Congress' strongest environmental records, declared his support for Waxman.

"They are both people I have huge respect for," he said. "But it can't be a matter of the individuals involved - it has to be who's a transformational figure."

Two Different Approaches Before Vote
Dingell is running an intense campaign to keep his chairmanship, rolling out the names of supporters in a flurry of news releases and letters to colleagues.

On Tuesday, handfuls of newly elected and Hispanic Democrats sent letters backing Dingell to colleagues. Dingell's supporters also have publicized the names of a long list of colleagues who have declared support for him.

Waxman is holding his cards closely, with no press outreach or public whip counts.

"I'm confident I'm going to win," he said Tuesday. Waxman said it was unlikely he would accept any deal with Dingell or House leaders before a Steering Committee or caucus vote.

George Miller of California, who co-chairs the Steering Committee and often acts as a Pelosi surrogate, has been whipping up support for Waxman.

"I think Mr. Waxman's going to win," he said. Asked why he was so confident, he replied, "Just a hunch."

Many Democrats remained wary about showing their hands. Rules Committee Chairwoman Louise M. Slaughter of New York has a vote on the Steering Committee and said she has made up her mind. But Slaughter declined to identify her choice.

"It's a secret ballot," she said. "Thank the Lord."

Michael Teitelbaum contributed to this story.